Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Dr. Anthony Fauci is incarcerated in any federal, state, or municipal prison or jail following a criminal conviction at any point before January 1, 2029 (12:00 AM UTC).

• Incarceration Requirement: To resolve to YES, Fauci must physically enter a jail or prison facility to begin serving a sentence resulting from a criminal conviction. House arrest, temporary detention/booking without a conviction, or civil contempt detentions that do not result from a criminal sentence will not count toward a YES resolution.

• Timeframe: The onset of his incarceration must begin before January 1, 2029.

• Sources: Verification will rely on major credible news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times) or official correctional database records (e.g., the Federal Bureau of Prisons inmate locator).

• If Dr. Anthony Fauci is not actively incarcerated under these terms before the cutoff date, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Prior to leaving office in January 2025, President Joe Biden issued a full, preemptive federal pardon to Dr. Anthony Fauci covering any potential federal offenses committed between 2014 and January 20, 2025.

In July 2026, Fauci appeared under subpoena before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Citing fears of targeted prosecution, Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination over 100 times. Consequently, in August 2026, the committee voted along party lines to hold Fauci in contempt of Congress, sending a criminal referral to the Department of Justice.

While committee Republicans argue that the federal pardon strips Fauci of his Fifth Amendment protections for those years (since he cannot face federal prosecution for them), Fauci’s legal counsel contends that the threat of state-level prosecutions—which are outside the scope of a presidential pardon—justifies his refusal to testify. Additionally, in August 2026, Fauci's former senior adviser at the NIAID, David Morens, pleaded guilty to federal conspiracy charges related to concealing COVID-19-related public records.