Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2040, all of the following conditions are met:

1. AfD in Power: The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) leads or participates as a coalition partner in the federal government of Germany (holding the Chancellorship or federal ministerial cabinet seats).

2. Mass Imprisonment: The AfD-led or AfD-participating German government enacts policy, executive action, or judicial prosecution that results in the state-ordered detention or imprisonment of all (or categorically all identifiable) licensed medical doctors, scientific researchers, and pandemic experts within Germany due to their professional roles or actions during public health crises.

This market resolves to NO if:

• January 1, 2040 arrives and the AfD has never entered the federal government.

• The AfD enters the federal government before 2040 but does not carry out the categorical imprisonment of these groups.

• Only select individuals are investigated, fined, or prosecuted rather than the universal ("all") imprisonment specified in the question.

Resolution will be verified via reporting from established international and German news agencies (such as Reuters, Deutsche Welle, Der Spiegel, or Tagesschau).

Background

During and following the COVID-19 pandemic, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) strongly criticized government public health interventions, lockdown measures, and vaccine mandates. At both state and federal levels, the party has repeatedly called for parliamentary inquiry committees (Untersuchungsausschüsse) to review pandemic policymaking and examine decisions made by political officials and advisory bodies.

While rhetoric from populist figures has targeted specific public health advisors and political figures, Germany operates under the constitutional framework of the Grundgesetz (Basic Law), which guarantees judicial independence, personal liberty, and the rule of law. A categorical imprisonment of entire professional cohorts—such as all doctors or scientists—has neither been proposed in official party manifestos nor is permitted under the German legal system.