Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the candidate officially certified as the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election held on November 3, 2026.

• The primary source of truth will be the official certified election canvass published by the Iowa Secretary of State.

• Prior to formal state certification, the market may resolve early if a candidate has been projected to win by a consensus of major decision desks (e.g., the Associated Press) and their opponent has conceded.

• Each candidate option will resolve individually:

  • The winning candidate will resolve to YES.

  • All other options will resolve to NO.

  • If a candidate listed was not on the general election ballot, their option resolves to NO.

• If the election is voided, cancelled, or cannot produce a certified winner, all answers will resolve to N/A.

Background

Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds opted not to seek re-election in 2026, creating the state's first open gubernatorial race since 2006.

• Zach Lahn (R): A businessman and former political operative who won the Republican nomination in an upset during the June 2026 primary. Running on an "Iowa First" and public health-focused platform, he is accompanied on the ticket by running mate Derek Wulf.

• Rob Sand (D): The incumbent Iowa State Auditor and the only Democrat holding statewide elected office in Iowa. He secured the Democratic nomination uncontested alongside running mate Dave Muhlbauer.