Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Zach Lahn wins the Iowa gubernatorial election held on November 3, 2026.

The market will resolve to NO if any other candidate is declared the winner, or if Zach Lahn does not appear on the ballot/withdraws prior to the election.

Sources of Truth:

• Resolution will be based on the official certified election results published by the Iowa Secretary of State.

• Prior to official certification, the market may resolve if a consensus projection is reached by major national news outlets, such as the Associated Press (AP) Decision Desk.

• If the election results are legally contested or subject to a mandatory recount, resolution will be delayed until the official, final certified results are published or the concession of the opposing candidate makes the outcome clear.

Background

The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election is an open-seat race, as incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is not seeking a third term. Businessman and farmer Zach Lahn secured the Republican nomination on June 2, 2026, in an upset primary victory over Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra. Lahn is running on an "Iowa First" platform. He faces Democratic nominee Rob Sand, the current Iowa State Auditor, in the general election.