Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to which political party holds majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate as determined by the results of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections upon the convening of the 120th United States Congress in January 2027.

• House of Representatives control: The party that wins at least 218 seats in the 2026 general election, or otherwise organizes the majority and elects the Speaker of the House.

• Senate control: The party that holds at least 51 seats, or holds 50 seats with the Vice President providing the tie-breaking vote for majority control. Independent senators will count toward the caucus with which they formally organize.

• Each answer option will resolve YES if its described outcome matches the certified election results/caucus organization, and NO otherwise.

• Because this market uses independent multiple choice, only the option corresponding to the actual outcome will resolve YES (unless an unexpected tie or coalition arrangement necessitates resolving multiple or custom answers).

• Primary sources for verification: Official state election certifications, reporting from major decision desks (such as the Associated Press), and the official convening records of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate.

Background

The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and approximately 33 or 34 Class 2 seats in the Senate (along with any potential special elections) are up for election. In modern U.S. midterm elections, the president's party historically faces headwinds, frequently losing seats in one or both chambers of Congress.