Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on aggregate national early voting tracking data (including early in-person voting and returned mail-in ballots) for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections through Election Day, November 3, 2026. Resolution will rely on official national tracking sources such as the University of Florida Election Lab or comparable aggregate election data repositories tracking party registration returns.

Each option resolves as follows:

• Democratic Party: Resolves YES if registered Democrats account for a higher total count of early ballots returned nationwide than registered Republicans among states reporting early votes by party registration.

• Republican Party: Resolves YES if registered Republicans account for a higher total count of early ballots returned nationwide than registered Democrats among states reporting early votes by party registration.

• Neither party (Tied): Resolves YES if the total number of early ballots returned for Democrats and Republicans is identical.

• Data not available: Resolves YES if major national election trackers do not publish aggregate early vote tallies broken down by party registration, or if data remains inaccessible through official channels following the election.

Background

Early voting statistics in U.S. elections track mail ballot requests, returned absentee ballots, and early in-person votes cast ahead of Election Day. State laws regarding voter registration and party reporting vary; only a subset of states report early vote returns categorized by voters' registered party affiliation. Academic organizations such as the UF Election Lab aggregate state-level reports throughout the early voting window to provide comparative national data.