Resolution criteria

Each option in this market resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specified event occurs on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59 UTC:

• A human lands on Mars: Resolves YES if a crewed space mission successfully lands a living human on the surface of Mars.

• A major global economy adopts a central bank digital currency (CBDC): Resolves YES if a top-10 economy by nominal GDP (e.g., US, China, Eurozone members, Japan, UK, India, Brazil) officially launches and deploys a retail or commercial CBDC nationally.

• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is officially recognized by a major research body: Resolves YES if a major AI research institution (e.g., OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or an international body like AAAI) formally announces that an AI system has achieved human-level general intelligence.

• A permanent base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if a habitat intended for sustained or recurring human presence (e.g., NASA Artemis Base Camp or the International Lunar Research Station) is operational on the lunar surface.

• A commercial fusion reactor successfully provides power to a grid: Resolves YES if a nuclear fusion power plant delivers net electricity to a commercial power grid.

• A significant cure or treatment for a major cancer type is widely deployed: Resolves YES if a major health regulator (e.g., FDA, EMA) approves a highly effective cure or curative therapy for a major cancer type that achieves broad clinical distribution.

• The world population reaches 8.5 billion people: Resolves YES if official estimates from the United Nations Population Division report the global population reaching or exceeding 8.5 billion.

• A major conflict involves a direct military clash between two nuclear-armed states: Resolves YES if official military forces of two declared nuclear powers engage in direct kinetic military combat.

• A global pandemic is declared by the WHO: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declares a new global pandemic (or Public Health Emergency of International Concern characterized as a pandemic).

• The first widespread commercial use of brain-computer interfaces occurs: Resolves YES if a consumer-grade or medical BCI device receives regulatory approval and commercial rollout for general public or wide clinical adoption.

• A country officially transitions to 100% renewable energy for electricity: Resolves YES if an additional sovereign nation (beyond those already at ~100%, such as Iceland, Albania, or Paraguay) generates 100% of its grid electricity from renewable sources over a full calendar year.

• A major international treaty on AI regulation is signed: Resolves YES if a legally binding international treaty governing AI safety or deployment is signed by three or more major global powers.

• World War 3 occurs: Resolves YES if a worldwide military conflict involving major global powers is widely designated as a world war by official diplomatic bodies and international consensus reporting.

• Generative AI becomes permanent part of our daily lives permanently: Resolves YES if generative AI capabilities remain integrated into mainstream operating systems, major search engines, and enterprise software as standard infrastructure.

• Global far-right regime in all countries worldwide: Resolves YES if far-right political parties or leaders hold power in every internationally recognized sovereign state simultaneously.

New options added by users will resolve according to credible news reporting, academic announcements, or official international organization data.

Background

The 2020s are defined by key geopolitical shifts, energy transitions, and rapid developments in artificial intelligence, spaceflight, and biotechnology. UN demographers project global population growth to reach approximately 8.5 billion by 2030. In energy, a small number of countries (such as Iceland, Albania, Nepal, and Paraguay) currently generate over 99% of their electricity from renewable resources, while larger industrial economies continue grid decarbonization efforts.