Resolution criteria

This market resolves each option independently to YES if the specified event occurs or condition is met between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, and NO otherwise. Standard resolutions will be determined using official data from recognized international institutions, government bodies, or reputable news reporting.

• Another global covid-scale pandemic: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declares a global pandemic or Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for a pathogen that leads to widespread global travel restrictions or global reported mortality exceeding 1 million deaths during the 2030s.

• World becomes global totalitarian dictatorship: Resolves YES if major independent governance tracking organizations (e.g., Freedom House or the V-Dem Institute) classify all sovereign nations worldwide as non-democratic or authoritarian.

• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is officially recognized by major research bodies: Resolves YES if major AI research organizations or professional bodies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or AAAI) formally announce or reach scientific consensus that a system meets an established operational definition of AGI.

• The world population exceeds 8.5 billion: Resolves YES if official United Nations Population Division estimates confirm that the human population has passed 8,500,000,000.

• A G7 nation experiences a total transition to renewable energy for its power grid: Resolves YES if official energy statistics confirm that any G7 member nation (United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, or Japan) generates 100% of its national grid electricity from renewable sources over a full calendar year.

• A permanent base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if an official national space agency (e.g., NASA, CNSA, ESA) or commercial entity confirms the operational deployment of a crewed, continuously occupied lunar surface base.

• Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently: Resolves YES if consumer and enterprise software applications powered by generative AI models maintain widespread public use throughout the 2030s.

• Global far-right regime occurs in all countries worldwide: Resolves YES if recognized comparative political science databases classify the ruling government of every UN member state as far-right simultaneously at any point during the decade.

Additional answers submitted by users will resolve YES if verified by credible official sources or consensus news coverage before January 1, 2040, and NO otherwise.

Background

• Demographics: According to UN population projections, the global human population is projected to reach approximately 8.5 billion around 2030.

• Energy: G7 nations have targeted decarbonized or net-zero electricity sectors by 2035, though timelines for achieving 100% renewable generation across entire power grids vary by country.

• Space Infrastructure: Major space agencies are pursuing surface programs—such as NASA's Artemis program and China's International Lunar Research Station (ILRS)—aimed at enabling long-term lunar surface presence during the 2030s.