Resolution criteria

This market evaluates events and developments occurring between January 1, 2040, and December 31, 2049 (23:59 UTC). Each option resolves independently to YES if the specified event occurs or condition is fulfilled at any point prior to or during the 2040s, and NO otherwise, based on consensus reporting from official international bodies, reputable media, or official scientific institutions.

• Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently: Resolves YES if generative AI technologies remain continuously and routinely integrated into standard consumer, educational, or professional activities globally throughout the decade.

• Human extinction: Resolves YES if the total extinction of the human species occurs by or during the 2040s.

• Another global covid-scale like pandemic: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) or comparable authority declares a global health emergency or pandemic that causes widespread global economic disruption or loss of life comparable to or exceeding the COVID-19 pandemic.

• A permanent human base is established on the Moon.: Resolves YES if an operational, permanently established or continuously inhabited lunar surface base is deployed by a national space agency (e.g., NASA Artemis program) or private consortium.

• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is widely recognized as achieved.: Resolves YES if a broad consensus among leading AI research laboratories and major science/technology publications agrees that Artificial General Intelligence has been achieved.

• World becomes a global far-right global regime worldwide: Resolves YES if a single far-right regime governs the world, or if far-right authoritarian governments hold power across virtually all major sovereign states and international governing bodies.

• The world population reaches 9 billion people.: Resolves YES if official United Nations Population Division statistics or demographic reporting confirms the global human population reaches or exceeds 9,000,000,000.

• Prediction markets as concept and its historical record all defunct and cease to exist: Resolves YES if all major prediction market platforms cease operation and historical market archives are largely offline or defunct globally.

As answer addition is enabled, any user-added options will resolve independently according to their plain-text meaning under the same 2040s timeframe.

Background

The 2040s mark a major horizon for mid-21st-century demographic, technological, and geopolitical forecasts:

• Demographics: United Nations population projections (including the 2024 Revision) estimate that the global population will reach 9 billion during the late 2030s or 2040s before potentially peaking later in the century.

• Space Exploration: The Artemis program and international lunar initiatives aim to transition from initial crewed lunar landings in the late 2020s toward permanent surface habitation infrastructure over subsequent decades.

• Technology & Pandemics: Leading AI labs and epidemiological forecasters track long-term risks surrounding artificial intelligence milestones, pandemic preparedness, and catastrophic global risks.