This market will resolve YES if, by December 31, 2025, at least two credible and independent sources (such as IAEA reports, major international news outlets, or non-governmental nuclear monitoring organizations) confirm both of the following:
Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% or higher has been fully eliminated or rendered inaccessible, and
Iran no longer retains an operational capability to produce uranium enriched to 60% or higher (e.g., through destruction of necessary centrifuges, cascade infrastructure, or enrichment facilities).
Sources may include direct reporting from the IAEA, or independent expert analysis (such as from the Institute for Science and International Security, Arms Control Association, or governmental briefings from credible Western or allied nations).
This market will resolve NO if:
These conditions are not both met by the deadline, or
Credible sources suggest Iran retains either the stockpile or the capacity to produce more uranium at or above 60%.
If no clear or consistent information is available by the deadline, or if sources are contradictory with no dominant consensus, the market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that a scenario where the uranium stockpile is buried and made inaccessible due to a bunker-buster strike on a facility would count towards the 'rendered inaccessible' condition for a YES resolution.
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