Will Trump increase or reduce *legal* immigration?
10
100Ṁ1632029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
8%
Increase
42%
Decrease
50%
Neither
Resolves:
Increase if, by the end of Trump's second term, the net effect of all immigration-related legislation he signs into law is a projected increase of at least 10% in annual green card issuances (specifically because of the legislation).
Decrease if the projected effect is a decrease of at least 10%.
Neither if the net projected effect is -10% to +10%, or no relevant law is signed.
Resolution is based on projections from nonpartisan congressional sources like CBO, or consensus among think tanks etc. (with differing politics between them, if possible).
I will not bet on this market.
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