šŸ›‘āš”ļø Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?
69
3kį¹€28k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO
@traders Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict.
Hamas leader claims Israel trying to avert ceasefire via ā€˜heinous massacres’ in Gaza
Hamas denies it has withdrawn from hostage-truce talks after latest Israeli attacks
Deadly strike in Golan Heights raises fears of major escalation - CNN 07/27/2024
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war - WAPO
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war - WAPO
Blinken says Israel has agreed to US proposal to close remaining gaps on ceasefire deal and calls on Hamas to do the same -CNN
Netanyahu is unequivocal about ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas: ā€˜There’s not a deal in the making’
It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond
AP News: Trump Elected President
Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain (Its Not Hamas, But Shows A Ceasefire May Be Possible)
White House believes Lebanon truce will put pressure on Hamas to negotiate for Gaza ceasefire, official says From CNN's Sam Fossum
Hamas and Israel ā€˜are talking seriously’ about a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, source says

Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?

For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met. This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2024 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]

For This Market These Terms Mean The Following:

  • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas

  • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

  • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

  • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.


Clarifications: None At This Time


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  • Update 2024-23-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - All requirements (including the 10 day lasting ceasefire) must be met during 2024

    • If a ceasefire agreement was signed in secret during 2024 but only revealed after December 31st 2024, it will still count as long as it meets all other criteria

  • Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Time: The market will resolve as NO at 5pm ET / 12am Israel Time, earlier than the previously stated December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Time: The market will resolve as NO at 5pm ET / 12am Israel Time, earlier than the previously stated December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Likelihood of this happening is pretty much impossible. This will resolve NO at 5pm ET/ 12am Israel Time (11.5hrs from Now).

@DistinctlySkeptical Uhh question, if it’s signed after Dec21 does it count? What does ten days mean?

@nathanwei All requirement in description must be met during 2024. The purpose of having the market close end of year is to allow any possibility of there being a secret signed agreement that come out later to the public. Though at this point, that possibility is very very doubtful.

Why in the world would Israel sign a ceasefire now with Biden when Trump will give them more favorable terms? It makes no sense to bet yes. Why with a lame duck administration?

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@traders
Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework

President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict.

Why would this happen? Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would leave the government, causing it to collapse. I guess Lapid and Gantz could prop up just for a hostage deal. But a hostage deal will never become a formal bilaterally signed agreement. This should be <=10%.

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3K Total ; Working to get it to 10K upgrade.

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sold į¹€251 NO

Biden's Last Big Push for a treaty should bump this up a bit.

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