Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 IsraelāHamas War By End Of 2024?
For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met. This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2024 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]
For This Market These Terms Mean The Following:
Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas
Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.
Clarifications: None At This Time
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Update 2024-23-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - All requirements (including the 10 day lasting ceasefire) must be met during 2024
If a ceasefire agreement was signed in secret during 2024 but only revealed after December 31st 2024, it will still count as long as it meets all other criteria
Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Time: The market will resolve as NO at 5pm ET / 12am Israel Time, earlier than the previously stated December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Time: The market will resolve as NO at 5pm ET / 12am Israel Time, earlier than the previously stated December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)
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@DistinctlySkeptical Uhh question, if itās signed after Dec21 does it count? What does ten days mean?
@nathanwei All requirement in description must be met during 2024. The purpose of having the market close end of year is to allow any possibility of there being a secret signed agreement that come out later to the public. Though at this point, that possibility is very very doubtful.
From CNN's Sam Fossum
Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain
(Its Not Hamas, But Shows A Ceasefire May Be Possible)
It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say
From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond
@traders
Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework
President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict.
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