🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025?

1kṀ30k

resolved Jan 29

Resolved

YES

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Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain (Its Not Hamas, But Shows A Ceasefire May Be Possible)

White House believes Lebanon truce will put pressure on Hamas to negotiate for Gaza ceasefire, official says From CNN's Sam Fossum

Hamas and Israel ‘are talking seriously’ about a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, source says

Hamas says ceasefire-hostage agreement with Israel is in "final stages" From CNN's Abeer Salman Talks with Israel to reach a ceasefire-hostage agreement in Gaza have reached their “final stages,” Hamas said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that it hoped the latest round of negotiations will conclude with “a clear and comprehensive agreement.” Hamas also said it had informed Palestinian factions about the progress made talks and that the leaders of the factions were satisfied with the developments. “The leadership of the movement and the various factions emphasized the continuation of communication and consultation,” Hamas said.

Israel and Hamas agree to Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, source says The Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will pause fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, a source briefed on the talks tells CNN. Under the deal, which is yet to be formally announced, Hamas and its allied militant groups are expected to release 33 hostages seized from Israel during the attacks of October 7, 2023. In return, Israel will free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The agreement would deliver the first reprieve from war for the people of Gaza in more than a year, and only the second since the Israeli bombardment began. Once confirmed, it is expected that the deal will allow Palestinian civilians to return to northern Gaza and there would be a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the strip, where residents have long faced dire humanitarian conditions.

Hamas told Al Jazeera that the group’s delegation delivered its approval of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement to mediators. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says a ceasefire deal in Gaza has not been finalized but suggests final details could be resolved in the coming hours. Three phases The proposed agreement would take place over three stages, the Reuters news agency reported, quoting an official briefed on the talks. In an initial six-week phase, Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from central Gaza and Palestinians would be allowed to return to their homes in northern Gaza. Hamas would release 33 Israeli captives over those six weeks, including all female soldiers and civilians, children and men over 50, Reuters reported. Israel would release 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian captive released and 50 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli soldier. Talks on the second phase would begin by the 16th day of the first phase, and are expected to include the release of the remaining captives and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. A third phase was expected to include the return of dead bodies and the start of reconstruction in Gaza, Reuters reported. (THIS IS NOT FINAL AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS)

Ceasefire agreement will go into effect on Sunday, Qatari PM says From CNN’s Mostafa Salem and Becky Anderson Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said mediators expect the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas to go into effect on Sunday, January 19. Speaking at a news conference in the Qatari capital Doha, the prime minister thanked US President Joe Biden’s envoy Brett McGurk and incoming President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, who was in the room as the prime minister spoke.

Qatari PM confirms Israel and Hamas have agreed to Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal From CNN's Mostafa Salem in Abu Dhabi Qatar’s prime minister on Wednesday officially confirmed that the Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire and hostage deal. “Qatar, Egypt and the United States are glad to declare the success of joint mediation efforts after warring parties in Gaza reached an agreement to exchange prisoners and hostages,” Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, who also serves as Qatar’s foreign minister, told journalists in Doha.

Netanyahu delays cabinet vote on Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal and hostage release (Washington Post) 37 min ago An Israeli cabinet meeting to approve a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas was delayed Thursday morning, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the militant group of “reneging” on parts of the agreement. Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet would not convene until Hamas accepted all elements of the deal. A Hamas official said on social media that the group is committed to the agreement announced Wednesday. Neither provided any further details.

Israel's Cabinet will meet tomorrow to vote on the ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, after claiming a delay was due to Hamas creating a “last-minute crisis.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office did not elaborate on what the issue was. (NBC News)

Israeli security cabinet approves ceasefire and hostage deal The Israeli security cabinet on Friday approved the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal announced in Qatar on Wednesday, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement. The 11 voting members of the security cabinet approved the deal with a simple majority vote. The full, 33-member Israeli cabinet still needs to approve the agreement. That meeting is set to take place at 3:30 p.m. local (8:30 a.m. ET).

Prime Minister's Office Announcement Type: Media Statements Government:The 37th Government Publish Date: 17.01.2025 Following an evaluation of all diplomatic, security and humanitarian aspects, and while understanding that the proposed deal supports the achievement of the objectives of the war, the Security Cabinet has recommended that the Government approve the proposed framework. The Government will convene later today.

Israel-Hamas ceasefire takes effect in Gaza The long-awaited ceasefire comes into effect, pausing a devastating 15-month war in the Palestinian enclave.

Amid ceasefire dispute, Israel blocks thousands from returning home to northern Gaza Israel also opened fire in Lebanon on protesters demanding their withdrawal by Sunday’s deadline under a separate ceasefire.

Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025?

For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met. This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2025 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]

For This Market These Terms Mean The Following:

Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas

Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

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If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
If this market is sweepified, Mana Market Will Resolve The Same As Manifolds resolution to the sweeps market for the Mana market.

Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Call to terminate ALL hostilities: As defined in the Agreement.
- Lasting: This market resolves YES as long as the ceasefire meets the description to initiate the start of the 10-day count, regardless of the phase or stage. The Market only resolves YES If the full 10 days has been met.
- Ceasefire Breach: The ceasefire can be violated by either side or an outside party if Israel and/or Hamas issue statements that legitimately break the ceasefire.
- Non-Hamas Groups: Rockets fired by non-Hamas groups like PIJ are considered as defined in the Agreement or deferred to Israel and/or Hamas statements.

Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Deferred to Israel/Hamas Statements: Must be confirmed by an official government statement from any of the Guarantors of the agreement (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ceasefire Breach:
- Only substantial breaches confirmed by official statements from Israel or Hamas will reset the 10-day count.
- Minor violations will not affect the resolution.

Wars

Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Middle East

Israel-Hamas Conflict

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