🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025?

Question

Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025?

For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met.  This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2025 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]

For This Market These Terms Mean The Following:

Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas

Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

Important Links:

Prime Minister's Office (Israel)

OFFICE OF PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS

al-Araby al-Jadeed

Full Text of the Ceasefire Agreement That Hamas has Accepted May 6, 2024  (This document may contain errors and is not official for the accepted deal agreed to in January 2025 until otherwise confirmed)

2025 Israel–Hamas war ceasefire (Wiki)

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If this market is sweepified, Mana Market Will Resolve The Same As Manifolds resolution to the sweeps market for the Mana market.

Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Call to terminate ALL hostilities: As defined in the Agreement.

Lasting: This market resolves YES as long as the ceasefire meets the description to initiate the start of the 10-day count, regardless of the phase or stage. The Market only resolves YES If the full 10 days has been met.

Ceasefire Breach: The ceasefire can be violated by either side or an outside party if Israel and/or Hamas issue statements that legitimately break the ceasefire.

Non-Hamas Groups: Rockets fired by non-Hamas groups like PIJ are considered as defined in the Agreement or deferred to Israel and/or Hamas statements.

Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Deferred to Israel/Hamas Statements: Must be confirmed by an official government statement from any of the Guarantors of the agreement (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ceasefire Breach:

Only substantial breaches confirmed by official statements from Israel or Hamas will reset the 10-day count.

Minor violations will not affect the resolution.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jan 29, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.