๐Ÿš€ Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful Launches In 2024?
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resolved Nov 30
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YES
NASA delays next SpaceX crew launch due to ongoing Starliner problems SpaceX's capsule has nowhere to dock.
@traders August - 12 Launches
September = 9 Total = 95
107 Total
110 Launches
@ 115 Successful launches

Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful launches in 2024?

  • Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.

  • SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST

  • Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)

  • LAUNCH COUNT

    • January: 10

    • February: 9

    • March: 13

    • April: 12

    • May: 14

    • June: 11

    • July: 5

    • August: 12

    • September: 9

    • October: 12

    • November: TBD

    • December: TBD

    • TOTAL: 107


NOTES:

CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.


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@DistinctlySkeptical
120 reached with 9-13 launch earlier today

115 F9 but one unsuccessful (286 through 400 with no 354 being the failure 12 July 2024)
2 Falcon heavy
4 Starship

Totals 121 launches 120 successful

@DistinctlySkeptical @Eliza
Please resolve, (or explain why not?)

Now 120 successful even excluding 4 starship launches.

reposted

@ 115 Successful launches

@DistinctlySkeptical
My reconning is
110 Falcon9 launches but one unsuccessful (286 through 395 (no 354 failure))
2 Falcon Heavy
3 Starship
makes 115 launches but only 114 successful launches.

October: 12

Total: 107

13 to go (in two months)

reposted

September = 9

Total = 95

reposted


@traders
August - 12 Launches

@traders July - 5 Launches

@traders I made a new copy of this market since SirCryptomind didn't want to manage his markets anymore:

/Eliza/will-spacex-achieve-120-successful-10f7866a143b

?

SpaceX Stacks Ship 28 on Booster 10


To confirm, this market does not require all launches to be successful right? Just 120 successes regardless of failure count.

Does success mean primary objective, or also secondary objectives? Eg would a case where payload is deployed but booster is unexpectedly lost count as a success?

@TheoSpears It will show on the manifest:
Green is Successful
Orange is Partial Failure
Red is Failure

Added
CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.

How many were launched in 2023?

@EstMtz Added it to the description.

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