Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.

Criteria: Earnings refers to "total annualized non-transfer income" as mentioned in their pre-analysis plan (at the bottom of linked page):

Description of experiment:

https://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya

Market for if increases earnings

Quote from PAP: total annualized non-transfer income. This includes (wage) labor income (household survey, section G.1), agricultural income (including the value of any output consumed) (household survey, section G.3), non-agricultural self-employment income (enterprise survey), non-enterprise capital income - return on financial assets (balances in household survey, section C - financial assets, multiplied by standard rates we can look up), interest on casual loans (household survey, section E), and rent (household survey, section C - land and real estate), etc. It does not include transfers from government (household survey, section D), transfers from NGOs (household survey, section D) including those from GiveDirectly, and transfers from other households (household survey, section D). Here and elsewhere, we will value agricultural output when necessary using the median of available local estimates of its price.

2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf

If the "Long Term arm" has significantly lower non-transfer income (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.

Note that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.

The market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on inflation that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP.