Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.
Criteria: Earnings refers to "total annualized non-transfer income" as mentioned in their pre-analysis plan (at the bottom of linked page):
Description of experiment:
https://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya
Market for if increases earnings
Quote from PAP: total annualized non-transfer income. This includes (wage) labor income (household survey, section G.1), agricultural income (including the value of any output consumed) (household survey, section G.3), non-agricultural self-employment income (enterprise survey), non-enterprise capital income - return on financial assets (balances in household survey, section C - financial assets, multiplied by standard rates we can look up), interest on casual loans (household survey, section E), and rent (household survey, section C - land and real estate), etc. It does not include transfers from government (household survey, section D), transfers from NGOs (household survey, section D) including those from GiveDirectly, and transfers from other households (household survey, section D). Here and elsewhere, we will value agricultural output when necessary using the median of available local estimates of its price.
2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf
If the "Long Term arm" has significantly lower non-transfer income (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.
Note that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.
The market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on inflation that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP.
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The authors recently released a paper on the results: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf
I have not read it thoroughly yet but the attached table shows that non-transfer income increased rather than decreased
Given this, I think I should resolve No. Let me know if anyone disagrees or has additional information.
what about output of material goods and services? it's likely someone on UBI makes more interesting stuff but more at their own direction, so potentially any resolution to this market could still be a huge success or huge failure depending on how the capability trajectory of the local community infrastructure such as local trade networks change
@L to clarify, I'm asking for your thoughts on what other variables matter besides income in existing currencies
@L Thank you for the questions. For simplicity, I am using one of the authors' listed outcomes, though they are making the data public so more creative markets are possible. Here is the full description of the outcome that this market will depend on : Quote from PAP: "total annualized non-transfer income. This includes (wage) labor income (household survey, section G.1), agricultural income (including the value of any output consumed) (household survey, section G.3), non-agricultural self-employment income (enterprise survey), non-enterprise capital income - return on financial assets (balances in household survey, section C - financial assets, multiplied by standard rates we can look up), interest on casual loans (household survey, section E), and rent (household survey, section C - land and real estate), etc. It does not include transfers from government (household survey, section D), transfers from NGOs (household survey, section D) including those from GiveDirectly, and transfers from other households (household survey, section D). Here and elsewhere, we will value agricultural output when necessary using the median of available local estimates of its prices"
@mcld It is in a pdf download at the very bottom of that webpage. Here is the description from that pdf (also in the market description now): Quote from PAP: total annualized non-transfer income. This includes (wage) labor income (household survey, section G.1), agricultural income (including the value of any output consumed) (household survey, section G.3), non-agricultural self-employment income (enterprise survey), non-enterprise capital income - return on financial assets (balances in household survey, section C - financial assets, multiplied by standard rates we can look up), interest on casual loans (household survey, section E), and rent (household survey, section C - land and real estate), etc. It does not include transfers from government (household survey, section D), transfers from NGOs (household survey, section D) including those from GiveDirectly, and transfers from other households (household survey, section D). Here and elsewhere, we will value agricultural output when necessary using the median of available local estimates of its price.