This can be resolved now as YES

@NiallWeaver Criteria imply it can't resolve this year.

https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/polling-averages-shouldnt-be-political?r=e3j&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

Resolves

YES

Polling averages shouldn’t be political litmus tests

And they need consistent standards, not make-it-up-as-you-go

"Silver told me that his last day at ABC News will be at the end of this month."

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-was-nate-silvers-data-revolution?ref=thediff.co

will I figure out what's going on and why the hell 538 is owned by disney (??) and then bet on my true beliefs?

no, instead I'll gamble 20 mana in the hopes of 10x-ing it

i... do, indeed, mean 538. sorry.

Substack letter says his contract is up this summer.

Do you mean 538?