Will Nate Silver leave 538 by the end of 2023?
42
274
770
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168


Resolves to whatever multiple credible news sources + his Wikipedia page say on Jan 1 2024. If there are no credible news sources, this market resolves to whether or not Nate's email is listed on this page.

May 2, 11:29am: Will Nate Silver leave 529 by the end of 2023? → Will Nate Silver leave 538 by the end of 2023?

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predicted YES

This can be resolved now as YES

@NiallWeaver Criteria imply it can't resolve this year.

bought Ṁ500 of YES

"Silver told me that his last day at ABC News will be at the end of this month."

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-was-nate-silvers-data-revolution?ref=thediff.co

bought Ṁ10 of NO

will I figure out what's going on and why the hell 538 is owned by disney (??) and then bet on my true beliefs?

no, instead I'll gamble 20 mana in the hopes of 10x-ing it

i... do, indeed, mean 538. sorry.

bought Ṁ400 of YES

Substack letter says his contract is up this summer.

Do you mean 538?