Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

#US Politics #First Female POTUS

121

Ṁ179

Ṁ255

2052

13%

chance

ALL

Resolves Yes if any of the following happen without a woman having first been elected president:

A person who identifies as non-binary is elected president

A presidential election is delayed beyond the end of an election year

The US is dissolved

The US switches to a parliamentary or other system without a president

Something happens after the 2048 elections, but before 2052 after the question has resolved which might otherwise count as "a woman being elected president before 2052" but the question has resolved already (note therefore the expiration date of this question is the 2052 elections)

Resolves No if a woman is elected president or the 2052 presidential elections happen without any of the above happening first

https://manifold.markets/evergreenemily/when-will-the-us-elect-its-first-fe?r=RGF2aWRTcGllcw

When will the U.S. elect its first female President?

This market resolves to the first election year in which a woman wins the presidential election in the U.S. Note that in the event of a delayed election - e.g. the 2028 election being pushed to early 2029 instead - then the election still counts as being in the year it was originally scheduled for. Any presidential candidate who openly and sincerely identifies as a woman counts for the purposes of this question. Nonbinary candidates would not count unless they actively referred to themselves as a woman in addition to being nonbinary. If the presidential election of 2048 is over, and a woman has not been elected President, this market resolves to "Not before 2052" on the assumption that the next presidential election will happen on schedule. If the U.S. dissolves entirely at any point between market creation and November 1, 2048, this market resolves as "Not before 2052." It also resolves as "Not before 2052" if the U.S. absolishes the presidency (e.g. in favor of a parliamentary system) and has not re-established the position as of 2049.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

When will the US elect the first female President?

Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?

Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?

39% chance

Will there be a female president of the US by the year 2040?

53% chance

Will there be a female U.S. president and a female U.S. vice president concurrently in office by 2050?

32% chance

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

46% chance

When will the US have the first female President?

Will new girl be the first female President?

49% chance

Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a female?

33% chance

Will the Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?

Sort by:

predicts NO

New criteria proposal for the "Presidential candidate dies/drops out between the convention and the election" scenario - thoughts?

I'm also (half-)considering adding some other unlikely contingency handling (all of these are "resolves YES/NO for a specific election year in particular," BTW:)

Resolves YES if a woman wins the presidential election, even if according to election monitors the election was not free and fair
Resolves YES if a closeted trans woman is a major party nominee and she comes out at least two weeks before Election Day; otherwise resolves NO even if she's elected (too many early votes cast before voters were aware of her gender)
Resolves YES if any sapient being that identifies as a woman wins the election, including AI, aliens, etc.
Resolves YES if a woman wins the presidential election, even if a coup or revolution overthrows the government before she is sworn in
Also resolves YES if she dies or resigns between Election Day and her inauguration
Also resolves YES upon an election victory even if rogue electors later try to mess with the election results (as long as states totaling 270 or more EVs are officially called for the candidate by the AP/Politico/etc., that counts as winning the election)
Resolves YES if a woman is elected in a U.S. that has seen civil war and/or secession but is still noticeably the same country and has not completely collapsed - e.g. how Abraham Lincoln was elected as U.S. President in 1864 despite half the country not recognizing the federal government at the time
If the Electoral College is abolished and future presidents are elected based on the popular vote, resolves YES upon a woman winning the popular vote for the first time after the change is implemented. Clinton won the popular vote too, but at the time it counted as a loss.
Resolves YES even if the U.S. eventually changes its name to something other than the United States (of America.) The question & description will just be updated.
Same thing if the office of Presidency is renamed but the functions/powers/etc. remain functionally identical. If the "X-Pres" or whatever is still a president by the political science definition of a president, then a woman being elected "X-Pres" or whatever still counts as a woman winning the presidential election.

Most of those have a <1% chance of happening, but you never know...

predicts NO

I love this market! It's always cool to see meta-markets about my own like this.

My thought process on contingency handling/fine print on my markets is basically "well, the future is weird and hard to predict, so hopefully there isn't anything too out-there that makes this market hard to resolve, but I might as well future-proof it just in case." Like, is the U.S. going to collapse entirely before 2052? No, I think there's like a 0.5% chance of that happening. But just in case...

Ideally, all of my markets (except ones that rely on my subjective judgment) could easily be resolved by other trustworthyish users/admins in the event that I can't resolve them myself.

What about the case where Biden is on the ballot but dies before the election, such that a vote for Biden is really a vote for Harris? That scenario was brought up in the comments and definitely seems like it requires careful contingency handling.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@JosephNoonan Ironically, despite seeming IMO far more likely than anything else listed here, it's not explicitly mentioned in the question description so I'm not including it

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@JosephNoonan That's a hard one. I'm thinking about how to handle it without setting some sort of arbitrary cutoff date - I have a few ideas, and will probably update the description of the original market when I'm more confident.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Surely if a woman is inaugurated as president at the usual inauguration time after an election, she has won the election? She doesn't need a majority of the popular vote or any other technicality, it's the becoming president that defines winning.

predicts NO

@Joshua The problem is whether it can really be said that she was elected president when she was on the ballot as VP, not president. For example, if Biden wins the election but then dies before the inauguration, it doesn't really make sense to say that Harris was elected president - she was elected VP and then became president through the line of succession.

predicts NO

@JosephNoonan Yes, exactly. My goal here is to measure when the U.S. population knowingly elects a woman as President; it's partially a proxy for social progress in the U.S. Technically, a woman has already won the popular vote, but I think asking about when a woman actually wins an election in our weird, messed-up system is valuable information about social progress too.

predicts NO

@evergreenemily Actually I think it's fine to choose a cut-off date, IMO though labor day is pretty early. News spreads fast. I might choose Halloween