When will the US elect the first female President?
When will the US elect the first female President?
61
1kṀ58992032
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.9%
2024
24%
2028
25%
2032
50%
Other
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bought Ṁ250 2024 NO1y
Given the lack of an "Other" option, and the fact that "Never" can never resolve, I suggest that we interpret the "Never" option as "2036 or later".
bought Ṁ5 2024 YES1y
If people agree with this, and nobody objects, we can do it that way, and worst case an admin resolves it accordingly
@DoctorHow Just all females eligible for president will be wiped from the face of the earth before 2036, duh.
So because of the word "elect", this wouldn't activate if Biden's soul departs this earthly plain and Harris becomes President, right?
@JohnBrown Why does this close September 3rd though? doesn't make any sense how would you know the answer unless you wait 8 years to resolve
also the question is malformed
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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