Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?

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Ṁ5535

resolved Jan 1

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This market will resolve as yes, if, by January 1st, 2023, a SpaceX Starship (or renamed equivalent) launched in 2022 will enter a stable orbit around the Earth. Reentry and landing are not required.

Aug 2, 9:14pm: Note: actually completing the orbit without failing is unnecessary, this is based on extrapolated trajectories at any point in the flight.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Elon musk

#Space

#Spacex

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3.00

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arb - should be the same

Arbing https://manifold.markets/SamuelMillerick/will-spacex-launch-a-starship-into

Betting the polymarket probability

Arbing

The plan for the first launch is for Starship not to enter orbit but to make a 3/4 loop around the Earth (launch from Texas, land near Hawaii) so at least 1 more launch will be necessary for this to be resolved YES in my opinion.

I am trying to arbitrage between this and https://manifold.markets/NathanYoung/will-spacexs-starship-complete-one. In theory I should net 47 if both resolve YES (48 from the other market, -1 from this one) or 164 if NO (-40 from other market, 174 from this one). Lets see if the predicted payouts work.

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