To qualify as a "prominent US politician" for the purposes of this market, a person must:

• EITHER hold or have held one of the following offices:

  • President

  • Vice President

  • US Senator

  • US Representative

  • US Governor

• OR be nominated or have been nominated by the Democrat or Republican parties as candidates for one of the following offices:

  • President

  • Vice President

To qualify as "advocat[ing] for banning open-weight AI models" for the purposes of this market, there must be a statement that:

1. Is directly attributable to the politician in question

2. Is public, such as in a speech, interview, or social media post

3. Explicitly calls out "open-weight models", "open-source AI", or some close equivalent

4. Clearly indicates a desire to ban open-weight models, not just regulate them. Such an indication might involve phrases like:

   • "Ban"

   • "Prohibit"

   • "Shut down"

   • "Make illegal"

5. Advocates for the ban as a policy position, not merely as a hypothetical

6. Was made between September 20, 2024 and March 31, 2026.

I will resolve to YES if, before the end of March 2026, there are 3 separate qualifying individuals who have made qualifying statements, documented on this market. I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.

Question inspired by these posts:

https://x.com/harris_edouard/status/1837144375337300441

https://x.com/harris_edouard/status/1837144376956354634