To qualify as a "prominent US politician" for the purposes of this market, a person must:
EITHER hold or have held one of the following offices:
President
Vice President
US Senator
US Representative
US Governor
OR be nominated or have been nominated by the Democrat or Republican parties as candidates for one of the following offices:
President
Vice President
To qualify as "advocat[ing] for banning open-weight AI models" for the purposes of this market, there must be a statement that:
Is directly attributable to the politician in question
Is public, such as in a speech, interview, or social media post
Explicitly calls out "open-weight models", "open-source AI", or some close equivalent
Clearly indicates a desire to ban open-weight models, not just regulate them. Such an indication might involve phrases like:
"Ban"
"Prohibit"
"Shut down"
"Make illegal"
Advocates for the ban as a policy position, not merely as a hypothetical
Was made between September 20, 2024 and March 31, 2026.
I will resolve to YES if, before the end of March 2026, there are 3 separate qualifying individuals who have made qualifying statements, documented on this market. I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.
Question inspired by these posts:
1,000
3.00Does such a call for models beyond a certain compute or capability threshold count?
@CalebW seconded. This needs to be operationalized. Unless we're expecting people to call for AlexNet to be banned.
@CalebW @JBreos The spirit of the question is meant to cover broad calls for outlawing open-source advanced AI, like future Llama releases. If the politician said “no more releasing weights at GPT-4 levels of compute and above”, I would think that should count. If they just ask for some narrow restriction, like that AI projects need to be closed-source to be eligible for military funding, I would think that should not count. They don’t need to call for AlexNet to be banned. I’m open to suggested operationalizations to pin this down.
N.B. I was hoping the account that wrote the Tweets inspiring this market would clarify what they meant by a ban, but I haven’t gotten a response from them yet. https://x.com/cfgeek/status/1837206459391824125?s=46