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MANIFOLD
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?
15
Ṁ1kṀ7.9k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YES
1T+
Resolved
YES
1.5T+
Resolved
NO
2T+
Resolved
NO
2.5T+
Resolved
NO
3T+
Resolved
NO
3.5T+
Resolved
NO
4T+
Resolved
NO
4.5T+
Resolved
NO
5T+

Total parameters

At market creation (2025-11-11), the largest open weight model is Kimi K2 by Moonshot, with 1T total parameters.

This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models. For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ618
2Ṁ68
3Ṁ19
4Ṁ17
5Ṁ6