This market resolves YES if, before March 1st, 2026, the US Department of Defense, Department of Justice, or White House officially confirms that a "significant weapons system" or "major military contraband" was found aboard any tanker seized as part of the January 2026 Venezuelan blockade operation (including the Marinera, Olina, Sophia, etc.).
"Significant Weapons System" is defined as:
Missiles, missile components, or launch systems.
Drones (UAVs) of military grade or loitering munitions.
Heavy explosives (C4, Semtex) in bulk quantities (>50kg).
Advanced electronic warfare (EW) or radar equipment not standard for civilian navigation.
This market resolves NO if:
The ships are found to contain only oil/petroleum products.
The only weapons found are small arms (rifles, handguns, RPGs) reasonably intended for crew protection/anti-piracy.
The "weapons" turn out to be dual-use technology (e.g., civilian chips) not explicitly described as a "weapons system" by US officials.
The 14 Qualifying Vessels:
Marinera (formerly Bella 1)
M/T Sophia
Olina (formerly Minerva M)
The Skipper (formerly Adisa)
The Centuries
White Crane
Kiara M.
H. Constance
Lattafa
Monique
Tamia
Skylyn
Min Hang
Merope