Timothy B. Lee, Sept 8 2026, after Zvi Mowshowitz mocked the Understanding AI piece he'd shared:

In 5 years, fewer than 10% of "workers" in the US will be humanoid robots in all of these occupations: short-order cooks, retail shelf stockers, hotel housekeepers, bricklayers, trash collectors.

YES means Lee was wrong. Resolves YES if, on Sept 9 2031, the number of humanoid robots in commercial use in the US in any one of these occupations exceeds 10% of BLS employment in it.

BLS occupation Employment Robots for YES 35-2015 Cooks, Short Order ~139,000 13,900 53-7065 Stockers and Order Fillers, retail trade only (NAICS 44-45) 1,600,000+ 160,000 37-2012 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners, accommodation only (NAICS 721) ~365,000 36,500 47-2021 Brickmasons and Blockmasons ~55,500 5,550 53-7081 Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors ~132,000 13,200

Employment figures are current OEWS estimates. The live threshold is 10% of whatever OEWS reports at resolution, not the numbers above.

Humanoid means a legged mobile robot with a human body plan (torso, two arms, two legs) at roughly human scale, running mostly autonomously. Wheeled-base robots that are otherwise humanoid do count as humanoid. Neither does purpose-built machinery, no matter how much labor it displaces: robotic fry stations, warehouse AS/RS and shelf-movers, self-checkout, automated side-loader arms on refuse trucks, SAM100 and Hadrian X, floor scrubbers.

Resolves NO by default. For YES, the robot count must come from the makers' or operators' own published figures, and must be units in commercial service on the job, not units shipped, ordered, or produced. If a US government release counting humanoid robots exists by then, it overrides those figures.

Resolution will be delegated to whatever frontier LLM I happen to be subscribing to. It will be given the description verbatim.