Will >50% of human physical labor be replaced by robots before 2030?

From https://twitter.com/MikePFrank/status/1740485323967410534

Compared to human labor in 2023. e.g. if 50% of people get automated but then find new harder physical jobs that AI still can't do, this resolves YES.

Anything that revolves around interacting with the physical world and moving objects counts as a "physical job", even if it doesn't require actual muscle work. e.g. driving is a physical job.

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This is physical labor across all humanity. Most of the 8 billion humans are far far far cheaper than a robot on both capital efficiency and ongoing energy requirements. The gap will be closed but 2030 is less than six years away.. not enough time.

I think people underestimate how much time it takes from R&D to mass production. Even if those robots were mature today, I think it would take 10-15 years to be sufficiently adopted.

Compared to 2023?

Per capita or in absolute numbers?

@Irigi What's the difference in this context?

predicts NO

@Irigi I am not sure now, I will ask more general question instead. Let's say that in 2030 the population of the world is 110% compared to 2023. Total manual labor or all people at 2030 is 80% compared to 2023. Total manual labor including robotic work is 120%. How much human manual labor was replaced in context of this question?

@Irigi Oh, good question. I'll go by labor as a proportion of the population.