A bet on the tail risk of a sudden mass-casualty heat event in Texas. The most plausible path is a grid blackout during an extreme heat wave that knocks out air conditioning across a metro all at once, but the mechanism is not a resolution condition; any cause counts. **Resolves YES** if a credible estimate attributes 10,000 or more deaths in Texas to heat within any 7-day period before January 1, 2032. Otherwise NO. For scale: 10,000 deaths in a week would be the deadliest natural disaster in US history, ahead of the 1900 Galveston hurricane (8,000 to 12,000 dead). Per capita, though, it is not exotic. Ten thousand deaths in Texas is about 320 per million, on par with the 280 per million that Greece lost to heat across the whole summer of 2022, the deadliest European heat season on record. The bet is whether Texas takes a Greece-sized seasonal toll in a single week.