Whoa, finally the vaunted Kalshi sea ice contract makes an appearance.

The IPCC doesn't predict this. Most likely you have in mind this prediction from the SROCC:

GMSL will rise between 0.43 m (0.29–0.59 m, likely range; RCP2.6) and 0.84 m (0.61–1.10 m, likely range; RCP8.5) by 2100 (medium confidence) relative to 1986–2005.

But that's the upper end of a likely range, and it's under a near-worst-case assumption about how greenhouse gas concentrations will develop (RCP8.5).

@StevenK the IPCC kind of does I believe. I was looking for the very top boundary of the IPCC's figures and so it's the upper boundary in the margin of error for the worst predictions of emissions... although I was basing the number on a graph not a table so I could have misread it slightly.

IPCC doesn't predict but does summarize the science. They usually report on a ~5 year cycle and last Assessment Report 6 (AR6) was 2021. There can be other special reports but not going to be anything by Oct 17th 2024. If this closes in 7 weeks and is based on what is available at that time then there is likely nothing new from IPCC.

Not sure whether this means this claim resolves as a no based on no new special reports? Or do we wait for AR7 or something else?

@DavidBremner @mods
Looks Likely inactive?
Not sure if N/A would be better than resolving.

I think (as predicted by IPCC) means 'I am asking this because the IPCC predicted 1.1 meters', not 'resolves YES if the IPCC publishes a prediction of more than 1.1 meters'. So we just wait until 2100 and use some measurement of the current sea level in 2100

I've also been interpreting the question as "will sea level rise by more than 1.1 meters?" My quibble was meant to be separate from that.

If the close date was 2100 then it would seem like we wait for 2100 or 1.1m actual sea level rise whichever comes first. However it expires October 2024.

Also given what was said 9 months ago
"I was looking for the very top boundary of the IPCC's figures and so it's the upper boundary in the margin of error for the worst predictions of emissions..."

Seems more like he was looking to see if IPCC projections get worse at the top end. One year seems too short but there is no other info suggesting or justifying a different period.

If most people are interpreting as a 76 year bet on actual sea level rise, that is ok by me, In that case I would suggest changing close date to 2100.

the description/title generally takes precedent over the close date, often people randomly set close dates

"Will the global sea level rise as predicted by the IPCC by 2100 rise more than 1.1 meters?" I might interpret your way, but the fact that (as predicted by the IPCC) is in parens and the 'by 2100', not 'in 2100' indicate the other interpretation