Potential Indicators of Fascist Tendencies in the U.S. Under President Trump by December 31, 2025
1. Authoritarian Leadership:
Will President Trump significantly undermine democratic checks and balances by December 31, 2025?
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report actions such as overriding judicial decisions, suppressing congressional oversight, or significantly increasing executive power beyond traditional norms.
2. Forcible Suppression of Opposition:
Will there be widespread government actions targeting political opponents, media, or dissenters beyond standard law enforcement by December 31, 2025?
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report mass arrests, show trials, significant expansion of surveillance against dissidents, or similar actions.
3. Militarism and Political Violence:
Will state-supported or encouraged political violence increase, or will the military be deployed for domestic suppression by December 31, 2025?
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report crackdowns on protests, extrajudicial violence, normalization of paramilitary groups, or similar actions.
4. Extreme Nationalism and Race-Based Policies:
Will the U.S. implement policies explicitly favoring one racial, ethnic, or nationalist identity over others by December 31, 2025?
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report large-scale ethnic deportations, race-based citizenship policies, or similar actions.
5. Regimentation of Society and Economy:
Will the government significantly increase control over private industry, media, and personal freedoms in ways characteristic of fascist states by December 31, 2025?
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report significant government intervention in private industries, media censorship, or similar actions.
6. Rejection of Pluralism and Democracy:
Will there be major shifts toward single-party rule or significant restrictions on voting, civil liberties, or democratic processes by December 31, 2025?
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if credible sources report actions such as significant voter suppression, dismantling of democratic institutions, or similar actions.
1,000One could argue that "significantly increasing executive power beyond traditional norms" has already occurred? It's an argument about the word significantly I guess.
For all of these: if Trump credibly attempts these things, but is stopped by other powers, then this presumably does not count? So we will always have to wait for possible lawsuits to finish before we can resolve?
@DanHomerick I would assume almost any action that would make one of these resolve Yes will be challenged in court. So if we have to wait for lawsuits almost certainly nothing can resolve Yes at the end of the year.
@Dauur How are you planning to resolve this scenario? Resolves No, resolves N/A or extend the resolution date?