Will Trump be regarded as a fascist by most mainstream scholars in 2050?
19
100Ṁ11702050
60%
chance
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Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2050, a consensus among mainstream scholars in political science, history, or related fields regards Donald Trump as a fascist. This consensus must be evident through:
Multiple peer-reviewed academic publications explicitly characterizing Trump as a fascist.
Official statements or position papers from recognized scholarly associations (e.g., the American Political Science Association) affirming this characterization.
Inclusion of Trump in academic textbooks or encyclopedias as a primary example of fascism.
If such a consensus is not established by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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