This market would predict whether the National Party-led coalition government in New Zealand (formed after the 2023 election with ACT and New Zealand First) will lose power at the next general election, expected in late 2026.

Market Resolution Criteria

• YES: The National Party and its coalition partners lose their parliamentary majority in the next general election, and a different party/coalition forms government.

• NO: The National Party and at least some of its coalition partners retain power after the next general election.

Key Forecasting Factors

1. Government Performance

- Economic management, particularly inflation and housing affordability

- Implementation of promised tax cuts and public service reforms

- Management of coalition relationships between National, ACT, and NZ First

2. Opposition Development

- Labour Party's rebuilding efforts under new leadership

- Green Party's support levels and potential coalition strategy

- Emergence of any new significant political movements

3. External Factors

- Global economic conditions and their impact on NZ

- Major policy controversies or scandals

- Significant international events affecting domestic politics

Timeline Milestones

- Mid-2025: Government midterm performance assessment

- Early 2026: Pre-election budget

- Mid-2026: Campaign season begins

- Late 2026: General election (market resolves)