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MANIFOLD
What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
24
Ṁ10kṀ28k
Oct 16
46%
National coalition
50%
Labour coalition
1.8%
No government formed
1.6%
Other

Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that).

"Other" might include a grand coalition containing both National and Labour, or a government of small parties without either major party.
Labour/National need not be the largest party in their coalition for their respective options to resolve, and they may govern alone.

"No government formed" means that a new election happens without a non-caretaker government being formed.

  • Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coalition governments include:

    • Minority governments

    • Governments supported by confidence and supply arrangements

    • Any arrangement where a party or parties form the government, regardless of whether they hold a majority

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As an NZ citizen I'm intrigued by how close the race is.

opened a Ṁ2,500 YES at 51% order

@tfae who do you think will win

@Jack1 no idea, haven't lived there for 6 years

assuming that 'coalition' can include minority governments, governments supported by confidence and supply, etc, so long as they do become the government.