When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

Question

Other is the "2026 or later" option. If it gets to more than 50% I'll add an answer.

I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date in this Wikipedia page:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

[image]Details:

I will update the link in the event of change in name or split of the article.

This is only about the war between Israel and hamas. If a war between Israel and Lebanon (or another power) breaks out, that will not affect this market.

I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 7 day period (or longer if I judge that there are still edit wars)

If there was an escalation that bought in new countries (enough that there's a new name for the conflict), I'll choose the Wikipedia page that is closest to talking about only the Gaza part of the war.

I will likely edit the description in response to good suggestions.

I will not bet in this market unless to normalise after adding a new option.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/will-us-public-opinion-shift-toward-6537f84f108e)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other, followed by Jan - Jun 2026 and Jul - Dec 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (99 traders, as of Mar 28, 2026).