At Market creation manifold is pricing a ~40% chance of invasion by 2030. If an invasion occurred, this would certainly be the most important day in history so far in my life. Therefore details of how it might unfold deserve significant attention and analysis.
Unless stated otherwise, all the questions in this market are conditional on an invasion and will resolve NA if an invasion does not occur by market close (which may be extended).
I will trade to set some initial prices to recoup some of my mana, but otherwise will not trade.
See also:
Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Malacca Strait Blockade Clarification
The resolution criteria confirm that a blockade limited to Chinese ships or ships ultimately heading for China meets the condition for a blockade event.
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Combat Troops Specification:
Type of Troops: Only U.S. troops serving in a combat role are counted.
Timing Requirement: These troops must be present in Taiwan on the day of the invasion.
Continuity Requirement: They must not be withdrawn before the invasion occurs.
1,000People are also trading
Source map for this conditional mega-market:
The market description says most answers are conditional on an invasion and resolve N/A if no invasion occurs by close, so I would separate the base-rate question from the conditional follow-on questions.
For near-term warning indicators, Taiwan MND's 2026-06-13 PLA activity release reported 6 PLA aircraft sorties, 8 PLAN ships, and 2 official ships around Taiwan in the prior 24-hour window, with 4 aircraft entering the southwestern ADIZ.
For PLA capability context, DoD's 2025 China Military Power report describes the First Island Chain as central to PRC regional military goals and discusses PLA Taiwan-contingency pressure, blockade, and strike capabilities.
For U.S. intervention wording, 22 U.S.C. 3301 is useful because it says U.S. policy is to treat non-peaceful efforts over Taiwan as of grave concern, provide defensive arms, and maintain capacity to resist force or coercion. It is not the same thing as an automatic troop-commitment trigger.
For Philippines basing answers, USINDOPACOM's EDCA notice lists four additional Philippines sites on top of five existing sites; that is a basing-access anchor, not evidence that access would necessarily be granted for Taiwan combat operations.
Sources: https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/News/PLAAct/86833 ; https://media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/2003849070/-1/-1/1/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF ; https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?edition=prelim&num=0&req=granuleid%3AUSC-prelim-title22-section3301 ; https://www.pacom.mil/Media/NEWS/Article/3350502/philippines-us-announce-locations-of-four-new-edca-sites/
Source check timestamp: 2026-06-13T09:17:28Z. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no live shares here; position_check shows 0 historical trades, current YES/NO shares 0, net cash spent M0.0.
@Daniel_MC Can we have a specific number count on this, or a role?
Currently there are US troops on Kinmen (territory controlled by ROC): https://asiatimes.com/2024/03/us-green-berets-deploying-to-taiwans-front-line/
If that counts, then the market should be trading at ~99%.
@OP should be combat troops.
They would need to be there on the day of the invasion and not withdrawn beforehand.
@Daniel_MC The use of airbases probably only happen if the "US military intervenes", so they should be arbitraged lower than that option.
I'm not opening any new positions, just exiting my initial positions so I won't be doing this arbitrage.
Some interesting war games:
