When will China invade Taiwan

Question

Must be an attempt at invading the main island.

A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this).

I made a single choice market which some may prefer.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan-qIyhnCZ5UE)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before 2050, followed by Before 2040 and Before 2035 are most likely. See the market for live updates (153 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).