Resolves yes if:

• It becomes widely accepted in international media that it was a Psyop.

• The tensions result in an apparent "weakness" in the Russian lines which is actually a trap for the Ukrainians.

• If Yevgeny is put in jail, he is inexplicably released from jail (or it's revealed his death was fake)

Resolves no if:

• No convincing evidence has emerged by the end of 2023.

• At the end of 2023 it's widely accepted in international media that the tensions were real.

• Ukrainians exploit a "weakness" in the Russian lines caused by the tensions with no apparent trap from the Russians.

• If Yevgeny is put in jail, by the end of 2023 he is not inexplicably released from jail (or it's not revealed his death was fake)

I will not participate in this market.

I may amend the criteria to make them clearer or better if there are good suggestions in the comments.