Will I be a Christian on Jan 1st 2023?

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I'm pretty sure the Christian God obviously doesn't exist, and have never been a Christian. But: I'm reading a bunch of books about Christianity (mostly Very Short Introductions), have attended church on both of the two most recent Sundays, and a large proportion of the youtube videos I watch are made by Christians about Christianity. Resolved according to how I describe myself on that day. Feb 14, 10:36am: Why consume a lot of Christian content? IDK sometimes you fall down a youtube rabbithole/gain a new special interest? I also think there's something appealing to me about "religions of the book" related to scholarship, and Christianity is the most relatable one. Feb 21, 2:40pm: I doubt that I would resolve to YES if I could only describe myself as a "cultural Christian".

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bought Ṁ1 of NO

Feeling Christian yet?

predicted NO

Note: time is slipping by and I am still not a Christian, nor very tempted to become one.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

This is actually the first question where it felt worth for me to calculate the odds with the Kelly criterion (p-(1-p)/b). I also noticed how this is a pain in the ass to do. First I thought my odds are 110/100 since this is the ratio of how much I loose vs. how much I regain. But actually it's 10/100. Only noticed since it gave me positive percentages for my bankroll even when it was obvious that the expected value was negative. Another complication is how your bet size impacts the odds. Would be nice if there was a tool that integrated with manifold. Then the only thing needed would be the URL of the market/a description of the market state, my estimated %-chance and my bankroll. That would really satisfy the perfectionist within me.

predicted NO

@TassiloNeubauer YES! someone has already done the obvious: https://github.com/bcongdon/PyManifold has a kellycalculator.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@TassiloNeubauer https://github.com/sonofhypnos/PlotKelly

predicted NO

@TassiloNeubauer I just made the above (so flagging this as self-promotion)

predicted NO

Sam: a variety of types, but mostly relatively-but-not-ludicrously conservative.

bought Ṁ9 of YES

What sort of Christian content are you consuming and attending? Liberal Episcopalian, fire and brimstone Baptist, traditional Catholic or what? Anyway, I hope you convert. I will pray that my bet pays off.