Will the world be more religious on 21st April 2029 than on 21st April 2024?
Will the world be more religious on 21st April 2029 than on 21st April 2024?
5
160Ṁ802029
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
According to the statistics I could find, around 84% of people globally are religious on 21st April 2024.
This market resolves to “yes” if the mainstream statistics I can find suggest that more than 84% of people globally are religious on April 21st 2029.
“No” of fewer than 84% of people globally are religious on that date.
“N/a” if reliable statistics cannot be found or if they disagree with each other as to whether religiosity has increased or decreased.
I will not bet on this market to avoid motivated reasoning.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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