Will the world be more religious on 21st April 2029 than on 21st April 2024?
6
Ṁ160Ṁ822029
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
According to the statistics I could find, around 84% of people globally are religious on 21st April 2024.
This market resolves to “yes” if the mainstream statistics I can find suggest that more than 84% of people globally are religious on April 21st 2029.
“No” of fewer than 84% of people globally are religious on that date.
“N/a” if reliable statistics cannot be found or if they disagree with each other as to whether religiosity has increased or decreased.
I will not bet on this market to avoid motivated reasoning.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will at least 1/3 of the world be one religion by the end of 2034?
14% chance
Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?
80% chance
Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?
52% chance
Will the world population be lower than today at the end of 2041?
26% chance
Conditions for Second Coming of Christ better in 2030 than 2024?
58% chance
Will global inequality be worse in the year 2100 than 2024?
44% chance
Religious Composition of the Planet in 2030
Will the world look shockingly similar in 5 years from now (2030)?
54% chance
Which religion will have the most human followers by 2100?
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
63% chance