Will Dan Ariely still be a professor at Duke University at the end of the year following accusations of fabricated data?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

https://openmkt.org/blog/2023/ucla-professor-refuses-to-cover-for-dan-ariely-in-issue-of-data-provenance/

Some researchers are calling Ariely’s large body of work into question after a 17 August blog post revealed that fabricated data underlie part of a high-profile 2012 paper about dishonesty that he co-wrote. None of the five study authors disputes that fabrication occurred, but Ariely’s colleagues have washed their hands of responsibility for it. Ariely acknowledges that only he had handled the earliest known version of the data file, which contained the fabrications.

Resolves based on his Wikipedia page for simplicity. Resolves based on status at the end of the year.

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Maybe NO bettors can organize a protest at Duke to move this market in a pro-social direction.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

What is the resolution if he's suspended (similarly to how Francesca Gino is suspended from Harvard)?

predicted YES

@LuisPedroCoelho I’m going to follow the Wikipedia page like I mentioned in the description. If it still says he’s a professor (even a suspended one), resolves YES. I would be interested in a market with softer criteria for punishment though!

predicted YES