Will 3 or more markets have more than Ṁ40,000 of liquidity added by regular users by the end of July?
14
73
Ṁ3.5kṀ1k
Aug 1
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on the "Subsidy pool" tooltip, or an equivalent source if changed to no longer reflect the same concept. Note that this value does not include limit orders. I will subtract any subsidy added by accounts owned by Manifold, eg "Manifold Politics".
Will the $1:Ṁ1000 transition cause more markets to get mega-subsidized, putting tens of thousands of mana in play for individual markets? The LK-99 market currently only has about Ṁ22k:
Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ500 YES
I won’t do anything to manipulate the outcome, but I think this should easily happen..
I’d buy it to 80% if I wasn’t staff
M40k is $40 — to have one of the most visible and highest incentive markets on the site. It will happen.