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MANIFOLD
When will a humanoid robot first be used to kill someone?
4
Ṁ225Ṁ163
2051
November 17, 2039
34%
Before 2028
34%
Before 2031
50%
Before 2034
50%
Before 2037
50%
Before 2040
50%
Before 2043
50%
Before 2046
66%
Before 2050
34%
2050 or later

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the year when a humanoid robot is first used to deliberately cause the death of a human being.

Note: the rest is intended to be clarifying info. There shouldn't be any gotchas hiding in it.

Definitions::

  • Humanoid Robot: a physical robot with a body structure and size designed to mimic the human form. It should possess a torso, a head, two legs, and two arms. Built in weapons may replace arms. Examples include platforms like the Tesla Optimus, Boston Dynamics Atlas, Figure 01, and Unitree G1. However, a full-sized BattleTech mech would not -- it should be able to fit through a door. Some flexibility is allowed here, so long as it is generally considered to be a humanoid robot.

  • Exclusions: Standard industrial robotic arms, automated assembly line machines, autonomous quadrupeds (e.g., Boston Dynamics Spot), unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), wheeled remote-controlled bomb disposal platforms, and autonomous vehicles do not qualify.

  • Direct Causation: if a human took the same action in a civilian setting, they would reasonably be tried for murder. For example, if the humanoid robot deliberately rams someone while driving a car, that would count. If the robot takes someone's job causing them to starve to death, that would not count.

  • Intent: the death must be deliberate. In a civilian setting, resolution may need to wait until a jury trial completes. I expect it will be clearer if it first happens in a military setting.

  • Agency: the robot does NOT need to be autonomous, or to make the decision itself. For example, a "dumb", purely tele-operated robot could fulfill this. At the other end of the spectrum, a robot that is allowed to deliberatly do things of its own accord could also count.

  • Verification: The event should be confirmed and documented by at least two reputable, independent media outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, New York Times) or an official government/coroner investigation.

  • Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the date of the incident that caused the fatal injury, even if the victim succumbs to their injuries on a later date.

Market context
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