When will a humanoid robot be capable of driving?
18
Ṁ1kṀ3.9k2040
June 27, 2032
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
Before 2028
38%
Before 2030
56%
Before 2032
63%
Before 2034
83%
Before 2036
89%
Before 2038
91%
Before 2040
92%
Before 2041
At a competency level of that of your average driver.
Valid even if it is illegal. All that is required is for the bot to convincingly demonstrate its abilities.
Update 2026-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The humanoid robot must use only the sensors and processing contained within its own body — no external cameras or data feeds (e.g., Waymo-style infrastructure), just as a human driver would rely solely on their own senses.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Interesting question.
I assume that all relevant instruments and processing have to be contained within the humanoid? So no additional waymo-like cameras feeding it data.
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