Supreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027?

Question

This market resolves based on whether a U.S. Supreme Court Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies/out for any reason and whether a replacement is confirmed by the Senate before the end of Jan 3 2027. The market resolves to one of three outcomes:

Supreme Court Justice Leaves + New Justice Confirmed: A sitting Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies and the Senate confirms their replacement before 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.

Supreme Court Justice Leaves + No Justice Confirmed: A sitting Justice announces retirement/out but no replacement is confirmed by 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.

No Supreme Court Justice Leaves: No sitting Justice out by Jan 3 2027.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Supreme Court and Senate confirmation votes, verifiable at supremecourt.gov and senate.gov, and major media reporting.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No Supreme Court Justice Leaves, followed by Supreme Court Justice Leaves + New Justice Confirmed and Supreme Court Justice Leaves + No Justice Confirmed are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Aug 11, 2026).