This market resolves based on whether a U.S. Supreme Court Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies/out for any reason and whether a replacement is confirmed by the Senate before the end of Jan 3 2027. The market resolves to one of three outcomes:
Supreme Court Justice Leaves + New Justice Confirmed: A sitting Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies and the Senate confirms their replacement before 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
Supreme Court Justice Leaves + No Justice Confirmed: A sitting Justice announces retirement/out but no replacement is confirmed by 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027.
No Supreme Court Justice Leaves: No sitting Justice out by Jan 3 2027.
Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Supreme Court and Senate confirmation votes, verifiable at supremecourt.gov and senate.gov, and major media reporting.
1,000