Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?
17
70
350
2028
48%
chance

It must be able to, given an out of game text instruction or in game contract like, for example, "send a rover to the Mun", make said vessel from stratch and land it on the Mun, and be able to do so for a variety of mission objectives. Using a preprogrammed mech-jeb equilivant or a doesn't count, it must learn everything from strach.

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This market should be added to the KSP group to perhaps attract more traders: https://manifold.markets/group/kerbal-space-program

Although this question is not really about KSP in particular IMO. (Who would go to the bother of training an AI to play this particular videogame?) It is more a question of whether we'll have very general "action transformers" that can easily be trained to play many videogames and generally navigate computer interfaces using just the screen pixels as input and using mouse+keyboard as output (rather than having special access to game info), and then someone happens to apply the action-transformer to KSP.

predicts YES

I expect us to have generic video game playing AI by then.

This is many times harder than mineRL, and similar things that meta have done (see here https://ai.facebook.com/blog/craftassist-platform-for-collaborative-minecraft-bots/) which is not trivial even now, so unlikely, but possible. Probably fairly low chance because of how little attention is paid to an ~8yr old game, so would have to be either easyish for non-experts to do, or done by a game-playing AGI

@Isaac228c Even less feasible for ksp2 because of the much higher possible valid inputs due to colonies, interstellar travel, multiplayer, etc.

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