If it explodes on the pad it still counts as a launch

-These resolve mutually exclusively, I did it this way because numerical markets were removed

Current Number as of Jun 10: 2

When did this market start? What does the "Now" refer to?

Edit: Oh, right after IFT2, okay.

A year too long how about 6.5 months on number

@ChristopherRandles Is this different than a yes /no? I am understanding if 3 launches then yes if 2 then no but that doesn’t seem right…

@ZacharyAustin No 3 resolves at 60% 4 resolves at 80%

So it is a how many rather than a yes/no.

It is nicer to have a probability distribution but this is cheaper to create and simpler to see the expected number.

@AnttiTarvainen Alternatively they could be cumulative? If there have been 5 launches that means there certainly has been 4 launches, etc. @DAL59 could you clarify that?

@TheBayesian Right, current market looks like that’s how people at mostly interpreting it. Works for me but would be good to clarify.

@AnttiTarvainen it looks very clearly like people aren't interpreting it as cumulative to me, otherwise you wouldn't have this rise and fall. Changing the interpretation to cumulative would be bad practice imo (but also I'm marginally invested in the current strategy 😁 )

@spider The norm is that when they are mutually exclusive the market is made to sum to 1, and currently it clearly doesn’t and peop’e clearly haven’t enforced the ‘sums to 1’ rule, so im not sure if the fact that the price is incoherent under one interpretation makes it more likely that the other one is correct, since they both are not coherent to the current prices?

@spider If they are not cumulative then obviously you should by NO on all of them and make about 4x profit.

@AnttiTarvainen Yes, because numerical markets were removed for some reason so I had to do it this way

@DAL59 I think traders find it odd that it's unlinked if theyre mutually exclusive, but it's an interesting experiment this way. thanks for the clarification!

@DAL59 Can you please update the description to clarify that exactly one answer will resolve Yes and every other one will resolve No.