The USITC injury determination on Russian palladium has become significantly more likely following the LPPM's exclusion of Russian refineries and the resulting 11% spot price jump [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101800575]. This price spike provides clear empirical evidence of market disruption and demonstrates that Russian supply exclusion creates measurable injury to price stability. With Sibanye-Stillwater operating the only primary PGM mine in the US [https://news.metal.com/vn/newscontent/103457705], the USITC can point to both import competition concerns and the strategic importance of domestic palladium production. The combination of demonstrated market impact, existing petition infrastructure, and international precedent strengthens the case for an affirmative injury finding by September 2026.

The 70% probability reflects the critical role of the USITC injury determination - Commerce already issued a preliminary affirmative finding with an 828% dumping margin on February 10, 2026. Now USITC must determine by September 30, 2026 whether the US palladium industry is materially injured. The Commission evaluates domestic production, sales, market share, employment, and profits under the "material injury" standard. With Sibanye-Stillwater (Montana) and the United Steelworkers union as petitioners and Russia accounting for 40% of US palladium imports in 2024, the case has strong domestic support. Historically, when Commerce finds such extreme dumping margins and USITC issues a preliminary affirmative (which they did in September 2025), final affirmative determinations are likely.

Related markets:

• Commerce final determination

• AD duty order

Sources:

• USITC Votes To Continue Investigations

• Commerce Preliminary Affirmative Determination

• USITC Injury Determination Process