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MANIFOLD
Will US rhenium net import reliance exceed 82% in the year ending December 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2027
52%
chance

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable us_rhenium_import_reliance exceeds 82 percent on March 31, 2027.

See measurable definition: measurables/rhenium/us_rhenium_import_reliance.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: USGS estimate of US rhenium net import reliance (%) for the calendar year ending December 2026 (published in USGS MCS ~February, settled March 31).

YES if: US rhenium net import reliance >= 82% for the year NO if: US rhenium net import reliance < 82% for the year Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium section (usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center)

  2. USGS Minerals Yearbook — rhenium chapter

  3. Calculated from US Census Bureau BIS data (HS 8112.41, HS 2841.90) + USGS production

Market context
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