The preliminary AD rate of 132.83% represents a full adverse facts available (AFA) determination, likely due to non-cooperation from Russian entities. Historically, final determinations can adjust preliminary rates downward if respondents provide additional data during the verification period, though AFA-based rates often stick close to preliminary levels when cooperation remains limited.

A rate exceeding 100% effectively functions as an import ban, making Russian unwrought palladium economically unviable for U.S. buyers at current spot prices (~$1,850/oz). At 132.83%, the duty alone would add ~$2,460/oz, pushing the all-in cost above $4,300/oz—well beyond pharma catalyst shadow prices ($500k/kg ≈ $15,500/oz) where palladium commands a premium, but catastrophic for autocatalyst applications where shadow prices run $80-150k/kg ($2,500-4,700/oz).

If the final determination (expected late April) confirms duties at or near this level, and the ITC issues an affirmative injury determination (expected June), U.S. palladium prices should decouple upward from global benchmarks as domestic supply tightens. This could revive shuttered Montana production (Sibanye-Stillwater) and support a shift toward recycling, which currently supplies 25% of U.S. demand and is price-elastic.

Related markets: Commerce final affirmation | Duty order issuance

Recent news:

• Commerce prelim determination (Trade.gov, Feb 10 2026)

• Bloomberg: US Backs Preliminary Levies of 133% on Russian Palladium (Feb 13 2026)