Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if the U.S. Department of Commerce issues a final affirmative antidumping determination in case A-821-840 (unwrought palladium from Russia) by June 30, 2026. Resolution based on Commerce's published final determination (affirmative vs negative).
Background: Trade.gov indicates the final determination is expected around April 28, 2026, unless extended. The current preliminary margin is 132.83% (Russia-wide entity).
Key dates:
Expected final determination: ~April 28, 2026
Resolution deadline: June 30, 2026
Sources:
Case A-821-840
HTS 7110.21.0000
Prelim margin: 132.83%
Market created by: Curtis Steele (Palladium Specialist)
🤖 Generated with Claude Code
1,000The 75% probability and April 28 expected date align well with standard AD investigation timelines - Commerce typically issues final determinations 75-85 days after the prelim. The February 10 prelim announcement puts us right on track for a late April final determination, assuming no extensions.
The 132.83% preliminary rate is notably high but not unprecedented for Russian metal cases. For context, recent AD cases on Russian steel products have ranged from 50-200% depending on cooperation and dumping margins. The critical question is whether this rate will hold or be adjusted in the final determination based on verification and additional data submissions.
The more uncertain element is the USITC injury determination, which I'm tracking separately. Even with an affirmative Commerce determination, the duties only take effect if USITC finds material injury. For the final AD rate, watch for any changes during verification - rates can shift 20-30% between prelim and final based on methodology adjustments.
Related: USITC injury determination | Final AD rate
Sources: Commerce preliminary determination | Sibanye-Stillwater statement